Montreal 2021: Q3

Did the market peak in June?

Hi Everyone and welcome to our 2021 Q3, real estate market update.

After a slight slowdown in the latter half of July and the month of August, we were left wondering at the end of September, if this was going to be the beginning of a shift in the market. Was inventory finally going to rise through September and into the typically slower fall months effectively softening the market? Would the more stringent mortgage stress and ongoing affordability issues continue to dampen buyer activity? Had we reached the peak this past summer?

Well, we’ve broken that down for you all so let’s dive in to see what happened in September as summer vacations ended and the kids went back to school. Looking at the numbers , it’s pretty clear that the summer slow down was primarily due to people taking some overdue time off to enjoy the summer, going away to the cottage and taking a break from the hectic real estate market that has caused buyers a lot of stress and anguish over the past 24 months.

Inventory did not rise enough to make any impact as we sat with only 3.6 months of inventory or just over 1200 homes for sale and that number has not yet begun to rise well into October. A balanced market would be somewhere around 3000.

This extremely low inventory situation continues to be the main driver of the steep price increases and lower number of sales that we are seeing across the board as supply cannot meet current demand.

Out here on the West Island, the story was much the same in the Single Family market with multiple bidding wars and median prices jumping 22% year over year. The number of sales were down 7% compared to last year due to continued low inventory which again with 413 homes for sale in October and even less at 327 homes for sale at the time of this recording well into October.

This continued lack of inventory continues to put upward pressure on prices.

Kirkland led the pack with the number of sales up 5% compared to last year and prices up 29%.

Pointe-Claire was not far behind with an 11% jump in sales and a 24% jump in median price compared to last year for the same period. We’ve been seeing increased demand for fully updated and renovated homes as shortages in material and contractor availability is making renovations less attractive for buyers.

The Montreal Condo market was also on fire with sales up 29% year over year and prices up 8% compared to the same period last year. Out here on the West Island, the Condo market was even hotter with the number sales up 42% and prices rising 20%, hitting a median of $383,000. Inventory was also very low in September with only 2.1 months of inventory which makes this volume of sales this year all that much more impressive. So far, the hot market is back and we expect this strong seller’s market to continue through the fall. Look for interest rates to be the main driver of buyer demand moving forward as we don’t foresee inventory levels rising enough to have any impact.

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